How would Donald Trump fare against Barack Obama in a direct presidential showdown?
A new poll has unveiled the surprising results of this hypothetical matchup.
Republicans maintain that Trump secured a “landslide” victory in the November 2024 election – a race marked by controversy, scandals, and even an assassination attempt. Despite the chaos, he became only the second Republican since 1988 to win the national popular vote.
Throughout his political career, Trump has gone up against major Democratic figures, including Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris. Recently, however, speculation has surfaced that he might attempt an unprecedented third term in 2028, though such a move would directly violate the 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two elected terms.
Trump has not dismissed the idea entirely. “A lot of people want me to do it,” he told NBC News, though he added, “It’s very early in the administration. We have a long way to go.”
If Republicans were somehow able to amend the Constitution, the question remains: Who could challenge Trump in 2028?
One name continues to dominate the conversation — Barack Obama, who served two terms between 2009 and 2017 and remains one of the most popular figures in modern American politics.
To test this scenario, the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners conducted a poll of 1,013 registered voters, exploring how a hypothetical Trump–Obama rematch might play out. The results were revealing.
According to the data, 52% of respondents said they would vote for Obama, while 41% favored Trump — giving the former president a clear 11-point lead. Obama’s advantage was particularly strong among Hispanic voters (73%) and Black voters (68%), both of whom supported him by large margins.
While Obama decisively outperformed Trump in this imagined contest, other Democratic figures did not fare as well.
The same poll indicated that Trump would narrowly defeat both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton if the election were held today.
The findings arrive amid renewed questions about Trump’s mental sharpness. Concerns have grown after a series of campaign moments and interviews in which he appeared confused or lost his train of thought.
Psychologist John Gartner, speaking with The Guardian, commented:
“What we’re seeing are classic signs of cognitive decline – a significant drop from his earlier functioning. If you watch footage from the 1980s, Trump was very articulate. Now he struggles to complete a thought, and that’s a huge deterioration.”
In short, while Trump continues to dominate Republican politics, the poll suggests that in a head-to-head with Barack Obama, the former Democratic president would come out on top by a convincing margin.
